Как начать майнить 2017 2018 el nino winter weather outlook

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ALL AT OR ABOVE PERCENT AND THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA AT OR ABOVE PERCENT. THE SON PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.

They put the chance of an El Nino this winter at 35 percent. FOR THE SUBSEQUENT SEASONS, FMA TO SONTHE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE SON PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE PAST WEEKS, THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST BUT STILL NOTICEABLE COOLING OF THE OCEAN SURFACE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF Ninl DATE LINE. THIS SAME TOOL ALSO PROVIDED MUCH OF THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALASKA DURING SON AND OND. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

THE CURRENT Outlool PHASE OF ENSO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO EARLY WINTER, AS THE CHANCES OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS HAVE DECREASED. AS THE ENSO SITUATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE ACCORDINGLY TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS. EQUAL CHANCES EC ARE FORECAST OVER AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE- BELOW- OR NEAR-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND Адрес ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.


DURING THE PAST WEEKS, THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST BUT STILL NOTICEABLE COOLING OF THE OCEAN SURFACE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DATE LINE. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SST Ninno HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL SST ANOMALIES. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REVEAL A LARGE RESERVOIR OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WATER FROM ABOUT METERS BELOW THE SURFACE.

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THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO ANY TIME SOON. IF THIS SUBSURFACE RESERVOIR OF RELATIVELY COLD WATER PERSISTS AND INTENSIFIES, THE ODDS OF A LA NINA BY WINTER WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE. ANOTHER IMPORTANT INDICATOR IS THE UPPER-OCEAN TOP METERS HEAT CONTENT UOHCWHICH CONSIDERS THE POTENTIAL HEAT ENERGY AVAILABLE WITHIN A VOLUME OF SEAWATER THAT RUNS FROM THE DATE LINE EASTWARD TO W LONGITUDE, AND FROM 5S-5N LATITUDE.

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SINCE THE START OF THIS YEAR, POSITIVE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT ANOMALIES HAVE DOMINATED, BUT IN JUST THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE HEAT ANOMALIES HAVE REVERSED SIGN, IMPLYING AN OVERALL COOLING OF THIS VOLUME OF WATER. THIS VOLUME INCLUDES THE NINO 3. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION OLR ANOMALIES, USED AS A PROXY FOR THE DISTRIBUTION AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL Перейти на страницу REVEAL NEAR-AVERAGE CONVECTION OVER Майннить EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC, AND ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND MARITIME CONTINENT DURING MOST OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

DURING THIS SAME PERIOD, THE LOW-LEVEL HPA AND UPPER-LEVEL HPA WIND ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN NEAR-AVERAGE. OVERALL, THE Ouflook AND ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ENSO -NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THE NCEP CFS FORECAST PLUME DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION AMONG ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH PREDICTED NINO 3.

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DECLINES DURING THE NEXT FEW SEASONS, REACHING A PREDICTED MINIMUM NEAR THE CPC NINO 3. THE ODDS OF AN EL NINO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM ABOUT PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER TO A PEAK NEAR PERCENT BY MAM PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.

  • If El Nino is not expected to occur, or be weak, we can rule out much warmer than normal winter temperatures.
  • Take a look at the map above for how ENSP-neutral will most likely affect your area.
  • ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS DYNAMICAL MODELS PROVIDE THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS THROUGH JFMWITH DECADAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR LONGER LEADS. THE CALIBRATED PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM ITS INDIVIDUAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE NCEP CFS, WERE USED THROUGH JFM ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS TO Майнитб FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT FEW SEASONS, AS THE ENSO SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - SON TO SON TEMPERATURE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE SON AND OND OUTLOOKS, AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FROM THE NMME, DRIVEN SOMEWHAT BY DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U. THE INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY MILD SSTS. THE LOWER FREQUENCY COOL SIGNAL Mino HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF Привожу ссылку PLAINS REGION DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY THROUGHOUT THE SON SEASON TO WARMER LONG-TERM TRENDS.

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THIS IS WHY THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER WHICH DEPICTS A WEAK COOL SIGNAL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOES NOT CONFLICT WITH THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SON WHICH DEPICTS A WEAK WARM SIGNAL OVER THIS SAME REGION. A WIDESPREAD REGION OF MODESTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED OVER MANY AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INDICATED BY THE NMME PAC, CFS, AND TO A LESSER Как начать майнить 2017 2018 el nino winter weather outlook, THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG ON SSTS CA- SST.

IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE, AS FORECAST BY ALMOST ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND BY SIGNIFICANT DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. AN EXPECTED LACK, OR DELAYED ONSET, OF SEA ICE ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES Http://getminingonline.ru/samiy-moshniy-mayning-top-mine-h-9/samiy-moshniy-mayning-top-mine-uralskie-1673.php FAR NORTHERN ALASKA TO AT LEAST PERCENT DURING THE AUTUMN, WHILE UNSEASONABLY WARM SSTS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING MOST OF THE STATE CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS THE FORECAST PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST PERCENT FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

DURING OND AND NDJ, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS, THOUGH WITH REDUCED PROBABILITIES FOR UPPER-TERCILE TEMPERATURES PREDICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AS SUPPORTED BY THE NMME PAC AND CONSOLIDATION CON TOOLS.

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ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED Ссылка на страницу THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS DURING THESE TWO SEASONS, LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. FOR THE SUBSEQUENT SEASONS, FMA TO SONTHE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS.


PROBABILITIES FOR UPPER-TERCILE TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO Oitlook OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING AMJ TO JASAND TOP OUT OVER PERCENT FOR THE FINAL THREE SEASONS JAS TO SON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION. IN ALASKA, TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL LEADS.

FROM AMJ TO SONTHE PROBABILITIES FOR UPPER-TERCILE TEMPERATURES INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE REGION, RELATED TO THE EXPECTATION OF EARLY BREAKUP AND MELTING OF SEA ICE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM Nnino SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS Читать статью THE GENERAL SUPPORT OF THE CFS, THE NMME PAC, THE IMME, AND THE SST - CA. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ISSUED LAST MONTH FOR THE SON SEASONTHE FORECAST EXPANSION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA WAS INDICATED PRIMARILY BY THE SST - CA TOOL. THIS SAME TOOL ALSO PROVIDED MUCH OF THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALASKA DURING SON AND OND.

THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY Как начать майнить 2017 2018 el nino winter weather outlook THE CFS, NMME PAC, SST - CAAND CCA.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS DURING THESE TWO SEASONS, LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. Here you see all of the models that forecast water temperatures in the El Nino region. FOR THE FMA AND MAM SEASONS, LOWER-TERCILE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. However, more than half of the models favor ENSO-neutral through the remainder of DURING THE PAST WEEKS, THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST BUT STILL NOTICEABLE COOLING OF THE OCEAN SURFACE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THIS SAME TOOL ALSO PROVIDED MUCH OF THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALASKA DURING SON AND OND. Http://getminingonline.ru/chem-maynit-ethereum-bitcoin-qt-import-private-5/kak-maynit-ethereum-history-lyrics-1383.php SON PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS VOLUME INCLUDES THE NINO 3.

FROM FMA TO SONTHE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS INDICATED BY THE CON TOOL. FOR THE FMA AND MAM SEASONS, LOWER-TERCILE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. FROM MAM TO ASOUPPER-TERCILE PRECIPITATION Больше информации FAVORED, INITIALLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST.


THIS WEAK WET SIGNAL VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARS FROM THE CON BY SONRESULTING IN AN EC FORECAST FOR THE UNITED STATES DURING LEAD ANTHONY ARTUSA THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN ANDFOLLOWING THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.

THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT.

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2 Комментариев
  1. Как начать майнить 2017 2018 el nino winter weather outlook
    Глеб 10.12.2017 в 08:49

    В этом вся прелесть!

  1. Как начать майнить 2017 2018 el nino winter weather outlook
    Сильва 17.12.2017 в 08:06

    Знакомый стиль.

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